Contribution of potential clean trucks in carbon peak pathway of road freight based on scenario analysis: A case study of China

Reducing the carbon emissions from trucks is critical to achieving peak of road freight. Based on prediction truck population and well-to-wheel (WTW) emission analysis traditional diesel potential clean including natural gas, battery-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, hydrogen fuel cell, paper analyzed total greenhouse gas (GHG) China's freight under four scenarios, baseline, policy facilitation (PF), technology breakthrough (TB), PF-TB. The 2021 2035 predicted based regression by selecting data 2002 2020 main variables, such as GDP scale, turnover, volume, number trucks. study forecasts different segments, mini-duty (MiDT), light-duty (LDT), medium-duty (MDT), heavy-duty (HDT). Relevant WTW are collected adopted popular in market, PHEVs have better intensity, especially HDT field, which reduces 51% compared with ICEVs. Results show that scenario TB PF-TB can reach 0.13% 1.5% GHG reduction per year. In contrast, baseline PF fail due only focusing while lacking restrictions factors energy ignoring improvement trucks' efficiency, increased 29.76% 16.69% respectively 2020. As insights, adopting has an important but limited effect, should coordinate transition low energy, melioration China.